Today, President Barack Obama called for a gradual draw-down of military forces in Afghanistan (Obama Exit Afghanistan). I’m torn about the actual draw-down, because military officials in the Pentagon are skeptical that this is the time to do so , and the situation in Pakistan isn’t getting any better (Afgan worries about draw down). On the other hand, Usama Bin Laden’s death has helped (along with other issues) to create major problems internally and externally with Al Qaeda and the Taliban. And eventually, the coalition will have to draw itself down. That being said, I have some serious reservations about Obama’s plans.
First, the President wants to have 10,000 American soldiers to leave this year, and another 23,000 to leave by the summer of 2012. That will wipe out the “Surge” numbers from a few years ago. In the end, by 2014, all American soldiers will leave the country. In theory, this sounds good, but I am not sure it really follows military and political reality in Afghanistan.
To start with, the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan remains a lawless territory, thanks in large part to the instability of the Pakistani government. Afghanistan’s own government remains very tribal and loosely knit, which leaves centralized command a bit awkward. And none of this takes into account the problems with the other “Stans” in the region, which are also unstable.
I can’t help but think that Obama is calling for the drawdown now in part because of the upcoming Presidential Elections in 2012 and his escalating war with Libya. In regards to the 2012 issue, it is a bit too clever of him to draw down some 33,000 soldiers just in time for the Democratic National Convention on September 3rd, 2012. It reeks of electioneering and using the soldiers and Afghanis for political purposes (and can backfire in between now and then). He already knows that he’s got some opposition to it, and has not really defined “victory” in any meaningful way (other than UBL’s death).
The conflict in Libya will also hurt him if he doesn’t get a quick victory (which was supposed to have been months ago) upon the arrival of any American ground forces. I don’t want to be in Libya. Europe’s NATO contingents do, for economic and political reasons. Let them handle it- and deal with other problems that are more relevant to American interests. Obama’s bungled Libya badly, and his administration is deeply divided over it. Congress is also trying to get Obama to adhere to the President’s legal power as the Commander in Chief, in terms of the War Powers Act and a Congressional Resolution to fight in Libya . Don’t get me wrong, I think Moammar Gadhafi is a brutal dictator and I’d like nothing more than to see him deposed and a democratic government installed. But I think that’s indulging in a bit of wishful thinking. That being said, if Europe wants to do it- I’m their cheerleader. And if it makes the far left angry with me, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. It really does.
The combination of obvious political maneuvering and fumbling in Libya towards mission creep make me question the decision to begin withdrawal from Afghanistan. It gives the GOP candidates a potential campaign issue to rally around if it breaks in their favor. It might not, of course. But with the lack of Pentagon support, poorly defined policies in favor withdrawal, the military-political climate in Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the conflict in Libya (and its attendant Congressional issues), this is not the right time to draw down in Afghanistan. I respectfully disagree.
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