Turkey's new Islamism

Turkey, under the leadership of Prime Minster Erdogan has made a shift towards populist and Islamist policies, rather than the kind of secular government that Kemal Ataturk envisioned. This is a crap deal for the Middle East, especially when the Arab Spring is pushing countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Libya towards true republicanism and hopefully, towards a secularist government. The real worrisome factor is that the Turkish-Israeli relationship is virtually in tatters, all thanks to Erdogan's policies, and it's becoming a flashpoint in the Middle East that no one wants, and frankly, should never have happened.

Now we have reports that Turkey is threatening to send their warships out to shield and protect the next "Gaza Flotilla". Nevermind that the UN just admitted that the Israeli blockade of Gaza is legal (even if they tried to whine that the Flotilla were "victims" of Israeli military excess. Bullshit.). This is more of the same kind of faux populism from the Turkish government. They have been saber-rattling for a while, and every time, they've had to back down. I surmise they will do the same here.......unless they really want the Israelis to strike back, and strike back hard.

Turkey doesn't have the military capacity to truly absorb the kind of sea and air campaign that they are threatening Israel with. Israel has long been the dominant air force (and naval power) in the region since the 1970's, and that hasn't changed. Their pilots and seamen are better trained, better equipped (for kinetic strike options and logistical support), and actually understand their civil-defense policies. The Turkish military hasn't fought a serious war since the 1920's, is operating on a peacetime budget (at best), and has a military that seriously doesn't want to engage in hostilities with Israel, which it (still) considers a friend and ally.

The big problem is that the Turks might embolden anti-Israeli activists and officials in Egypt, the West Bank, and Iran. The worst possible outcome is a paranoid Israel that feels it's back is up against a wall (again), and lashes out. Israel would ensure their survival in that endgame scenario- but Turkey would lose, badly. And alot of others would suffer the fallout (I mean that both literally and metaphorically) in the process. Grow up, Turkey. Grow up before someone else forces you to.